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QuantConomy

Monthly market brief: Apr 16 – May 15, 2026

QuantConomy Monthly digest

Strong signals across various assets indicate a mix of bearish and bullish trends, with notable insider selling in CATI/USDT and AMD, while insider buying is significant in PSUS. Prediction markets lean towards geopolitical and sporting events, with high confidence in a Russia-Ukraine ceasefire and lower odds for major football tournament winners. This is market context, not advice.

Signals
20
Insider trades
20
8-K items
20
SEC filings
20
Prediction markets
20
News
20

Strongest signals

Strong insider selling and overbought/oversold conditions dominate the signals.

Asset Signal Score Detail
EUR
neutral
volume
100
EUR/EURI volume dry-up: 0% of expected volume for Friday 23:00 UTC, price flat 0.01% (strength 100)
CATI
very bearish
price
100
CATI/USDT downtrend (drop): price -7.17% (strength 100, current 0.0557)
MPX
MARINE PRODUCTS CORP
very bearish
corporate event
100
MPX filed 8-K: Acquisition or Disposition, Delisting Notice, Modification to Rights of Security Holders - 5 material events - [very strong very bearish signal]
CETUS
very bearish
technical
97
CETUS/USDT RSI overbought at 96.9 (>70), strength 97
AIP
Arteris Inc
bearish
insider trade
90
Cluster selling detected: 3 insider trades for AIP worth $1502686014642.18M total - 70000 shares - [very strong bearish signal]
CME
CME Group Inc
bullish
news
78
Bloomberg reports positive developments for CME — in Sections / Business and Economics / Financial Markets / Futures Market — "CME to Create Futures Market for Computing Power Backing AI" — [strong signal from highly credible source]
0G
neutral
volume
100
0G/USDT sustained volume dry-up: 11% of expected volume for Friday 23:00 UTC, price flat 0.00% (strength 100)
0G
very bearish
price
100
0G/USDT downtrend (drop): price -7.10% (strength 100, current 0.51)
AMD
ADVANCED MICRO DEVICES INC
bullish
corporate event
100
AMD filed 8-K: Material Definitive Agreement, Termination of Material Agreement, Direct Financial Obligation - 4 material events - [very strong bullish signal]
TRUMP
very bullish
technical
95
TRUMP/USDT RSI oversold at 4.8 (<30), strength 95
PSUS
Pershing Square USA, Ltd
very bullish
insider trade
85
Cluster buying detected: 7 insider trades for PSUS worth $1.7500000010000048e+47M total - 96000000 shares - [very strong very bullish signal]
FNCTF
ORANGE
bullish
news
77
Bloomberg reports positive developments for FNCTF — in Events / Natural Disasters / Solar Flares — "Orange to Double Africa Solar-Powered Towers as War Boosts Costs" — [strong signal from highly credible source]
1000CAT
bearish
volume
100
1000CAT/USDT volume dry-up: 0% of expected volume for Friday 23:00 UTC, price down 3.47% (strength 100)
RUNE
very bearish
price
100
RUNE/USDC downtrend (drop): price -15.02% (strength 100, current 0.498)
RANI
Rani Therapeutics Inc
very bearish
corporate event
100
RANI filed 8-K: Earnings Release, Delisting Notice, Director or Officer Changes - 3 material events - [very strong very bearish signal]
1000SATS
very bearish
technical
94
1000SATS/USDC RSI overbought at 94.0 (>70), strength 94
PSUS
Pershing Square USA, Ltd
bullish
insider trade
80
Cluster buying detected: 3 insider trades for PSUS worth $17500000010000050.00M total - 100000 shares - [very strong bullish signal]
0A6882
ORANGE SA
bullish
news
76
Bloomberg reports positive developments for 0A6882 — in Events / Natural Disasters / Solar Flares — "Orange to Double Africa Solar-Powered Towers as War Boosts Costs" — [strong signal from highly credible source]
CATI
bearish
volume
100
CATI/USDT sustained volume dry-up: 1% of expected volume for Friday 23:00 UTC, price down 7.17% (strength 100)
CFX
very bearish
price
100
CFX/USDC downtrend (drop): price -8.38% (strength 100, current 0.06898)

Insider filings

Significant insider selling activity is prevalent, with large volumes of shares being sold.

Ticker Insider Type Value Filed
XOS Aljomaih Automotive Co. other $2250.0B 2026-02-11
XOS Aljomaih Automotive Co. other $2250.0B 2025-11-11
CRWV Magnetar Financial LLC sale $619.6B 2026-04-15
CRWV Magnetar Financial LLC sale $613.5B 2026-04-22
CRWV Magnetar Financial LLC sale $582.6B 2026-04-29
CRWV Magnetar Financial LLC sale $146.4B 2026-05-04
CRWV Magnetar Financial LLC sale $38.8B 2026-05-06
CRWV Magnetar Financial LLC sale $36.4B 2026-05-01
CRWV Magnetar Financial LLC sale $13.8B 2026-05-05
PSUS Pershing Square Management, LLC Director grant $4.8B 2026-04-30
SVRE VisionWave Holdings, Inc. purchase $4.3B 2026-04-28
RIVN VOLKSWAGEN AG purchase $999.9M 2026-04-30
ADT Apollo Management Holdings GP, LLC other $739.5M 2026-05-05
ADT Apollo Management Holdings GP, LLC other $739.5M 2026-05-05
LCID PUBLIC INVESTMENT FUND purchase $550.0M 2026-04-28
CRGY Liberty Mutual Foundation Inc. sale $402.0M 2026-05-07
INGM PLATINUM EQUITY, LLC sale $361.2M 2026-05-07
JHG Baldwin Brian M Director sale $320.6M 2026-05-12
JHG Frank Joshua D. Director sale $320.6M 2026-05-12
JEF SUMITOMO MITSUI FINANCIAL GROUP, INC. Director purchase $310.0M 2026-05-01

8-K items

Multiple delisting and accounting changes are reported, indicating potential risks for these companies.

Company Item Materiality Filed
DFH Item 4.01 DFH - 4.01 - Changes in Registrant's Certifying Accountant 1.00 2026-05-15
BURU Item 3.01 BURU - 3.01 - Notice of Delisting or Failure to Satisfy a Continued Listing Rule or Standard; Transfer of Listing 1.00 2026-05-15
CGC Item 4.02 CGC - 4.02 - Non-Reliance on Previously Issued Financial Statements or a Related Audit Report or Completed Interim Review 1.00 2026-05-15
CCLD Item 3.01 CCLD - 3.01 - Notice of Delisting or Failure to Satisfy a Continued Listing Rule or Standard; Transfer of Listing 1.00 2026-05-15
PIII Item 3.01 PIII - 3.01 - Notice of Delisting or Failure to Satisfy a Continued Listing Rule or Standard; Transfer of Listing 1.00 2026-05-15
GCTK Item 3.01 GCTK - 3.01 - Notice of Delisting or Failure to Satisfy a Continued Listing Rule or Standard; Transfer of Listing 1.00 2026-05-15
MPX Item 5.01 MPX - 5.01 - Changes in Control of Registrant 1.00 2026-05-15
MPX Item 3.01 MPX - 3.01 - Notice of Delisting or Failure to Satisfy a Continued Listing Rule or Standard; Transfer of Listing 1.00 2026-05-15
RANI Item 3.01 RANI - 3.01 - Notice of Delisting or Failure to Satisfy a Continued Listing Rule or Standard; Transfer of Listing 1.00 2026-05-15
— Item 3.01 SKYE BIOSCIENCE, INC. - 3.01 - Notice of Delisting or Failure to Satisfy a Continued Listing Rule or Standard; Transfer of Listing 1.00 2026-05-15
FRPH Item 4.01 FRPH - 4.01 - Changes in Registrant's Certifying Accountant 1.00 2026-05-15
FORA Item 5.01 FORA - 5.01 - Changes in Control of Registrant 1.00 2026-05-15
FORA Item 3.01 FORA - 3.01 - Notice of Delisting or Failure to Satisfy a Continued Listing Rule or Standard; Transfer of Listing 1.00 2026-05-15
EHAB Item 3.01 EHAB - 3.01 - Notice of Delisting or Failure to Satisfy a Continued Listing Rule or Standard; Transfer of Listing 1.00 2026-05-15
EHAB Item 5.01 EHAB - 5.01 - Changes in Control of Registrant 1.00 2026-05-15
TUSK Item 4.01 TUSK - 4.01 - Changes in Registrant's Certifying Accountant 1.00 2026-05-15
BRUN Item 4.01 BRUN - 4.01 - Changes in Registrant's Certifying Accountant 1.00 2026-05-14
BRUN Item 5.01 BRUN - 5.01 - Changes in Control of Registrant 1.00 2026-05-14
BRUN Item 3.01 BRUN - 3.01 - Notice of Delisting or Failure to Satisfy a Continued Listing Rule or Standard; Transfer of Listing 1.00 2026-05-14
CSGS Item 5.01 CSGS - 5.01 - Changes in Control of Registrant 1.00 2026-05-14

SEC filings radar

Several tender offers and large-scale stock sales are filed, suggesting significant market movements ahead.

Kind Ticker Filing Detail Filed
Tender offer — Unknown Subject Company — 2026-04-01
Tender offer — Unknown Subject Company — 2026-04-20
Tender offer — Unknown Subject Company — 2026-04-17
Tender offer — Unknown Subject Company — 2026-04-14
13D/G — Pershing Square USA, Ltd. - SC_13D Pershing Square USA, Ltd. 100% stake 2026-04-30
13D/G — Invesco Advantage Municipal Income Trust II - SC_13D Invesco Advantage Municipal Income Trust II 100% stake 2026-04-30
13D/G — Staffing 360 Solutions, Inc. - SC_13D Staffing 360 Solutions, Inc. 100% stake 2026-04-27
13D/G — Arcellx, Inc. - SC_13D Arcellx, Inc. 100% stake 2026-04-28
Form 144 — CARVANA CO. - GARCIA ERNEST C. II CARVANA CO. $1.6B proposed sale 2026-05-01
Form 144 — DigitalOcean Holdings, Inc. - AI Droplet Holdings LLC DigitalOcean Holdings, Inc. $522.0M proposed sale 2026-05-14
Form 144 — DigitalOcean Holdings, Inc. - AI Droplet Holdings LLC DigitalOcean Holdings, Inc. $522.0M proposed sale 2026-05-14
Form 144 — Crescent Energy Company - Liberty Mutual Foundation Inc. Crescent Energy Company $427.1M proposed sale 2026-05-07
Registration — Unknown Issuer - S-3 Unknown Issuer — 2026-04-01
Registration — Unknown Issuer - S-3 Unknown Issuer — 2026-04-03
Registration — Unknown Issuer - S-3 Unknown Issuer — 2026-04-09
Registration — Unknown Issuer - S-3 Unknown Issuer — 2026-04-01
13F — BlackRock, Inc. - 13F BlackRock, Inc. $5723.5B portfolio, 50651 positions 2026-03-31
13F — VANGUARD CAPITAL MANAGEMENT LLC - 13F VANGUARD CAPITAL MANAGEMENT LLC $3995.9B portfolio, 3982 positions 2026-03-31
13F — VANGUARD CAPITAL MANAGEMENT LLC - 13F VANGUARD CAPITAL MANAGEMENT LLC $3995.7B portfolio, 3982 positions 2026-03-31
13F — STATE STREET CORP - 13F STATE STREET CORP $2896.4B portfolio, 4269 positions 2026-03-31

Prediction markets

Prediction markets are heavily focused on geopolitical and sports events, with low probabilities for most outcomes.

Question Yes Volume Platform Snapshot
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? 0.3% $363.8M polymarket 2026-06-03 23:59 UTC
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026? 0.2% $283.8M polymarket 2026-05-01 00:35 UTC
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? 0.1% $158.6M polymarket 2026-07-07 21:31 UTC
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? 0.1% $152.3M polymarket 2026-07-10 01:10 UTC
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? 0.1% $142.5M polymarket 2026-07-07 05:09 UTC
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026? 100% $138.4M polymarket 2026-05-09 19:34 UTC
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? 0.1% $137.8M polymarket 2026-07-06 06:00 UTC
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? 0.1% $129.3M polymarket 2026-07-11 00:13 UTC
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? 6% $127.0M polymarket 2026-07-11 02:45 UTC
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? 18.3% $123.1M polymarket 2026-07-11 02:45 UTC
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? 1.7% $122.8M polymarket 2026-07-11 02:45 UTC
Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? 0.1% $119.2M polymarket 2026-07-04 03:43 UTC
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? 0.1% $111.7M polymarket 2026-06-30 21:52 UTC
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? 37.3% $110.2M polymarket 2026-07-11 02:45 UTC
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? 0.1% $109.5M polymarket 2026-07-03 04:04 UTC
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? 0.1% $109.1M polymarket 2026-07-07 00:13 UTC
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? 0.1% $107.5M polymarket 2026-06-28 04:49 UTC
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? 0.1% $107.4M polymarket 2026-07-05 02:12 UTC
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? 0.1% $104.7M polymarket 2026-07-08 01:58 UTC
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? 0.1% $102.9M polymarket 2026-07-04 22:14 UTC

In the news

Asset-linked headlines published in this window, newest first.

Generated automatically from live QuantConomy data. Every row is a real platform record; the summary is model-written from those rows. Not investment advice. New here? Learn what each signal means .

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