Monthly market brief: Apr 15 – May 14, 2026
QuantConomy Monthly digest
Strong signals across various assets indicate a mix of bearish and bullish sentiment, with notable insider selling in AIP and PSUS, and buying in PSUS, suggesting significant market interest. Prediction markets lean towards geopolitical and sporting events, with high confidence in a Russia-Ukraine ceasefire and lower odds for various football outcomes.
- Signals
- 20
- Insider trades
- 20
- 8-K items
- 20
- SEC filings
- 20
- Prediction markets
- 20
- News
- 20
Strongest signals
Strong signals include significant insider selling and volume dry-ups, alongside RSI overbought and oversold conditions, with some positive developments reported by credible sources.
| Asset | Signal | Score | Detail |
|---|---|---|---|
| neutral | 100 | AVAX/USDT volume dry-up: 0% of expected volume for Thursday 23:00 UTC, price flat 0.00% (strength 100) | |
| very bearish | 100 | VELODROME/USDC downtrend (drop): price -7.80% (strength 100, current 0.01761) | |
| CSG SYSTEMS INTERNATIONAL INC | very bearish | 100 | CSGS filed 8-K: Material Definitive Agreement, Termination of Material Agreement, Acquisition or Disposition - 9 material events - [very strong very bearish signal] |
| very bearish | 97 | CETUS/USDT RSI overbought at 96.9 (>70), strength 97 | |
| Arteris Inc | bearish | 90 | Cluster selling detected: 3 insider trades for AIP worth $1502686014642.18M total - 70000 shares - [very strong bearish signal] |
| ORANGE | bullish | 77 | Bloomberg reports positive developments for FNCTF — in Events / Natural Disasters / Solar Flares — "Orange to Double Africa Solar-Powered Towers as War Boosts Costs" — [strong signal from highly credible source] |
| neutral | 100 | MBOX/TRY sustained volume dry-up: 0% of expected volume for Thursday 23:00 UTC, price flat 0.00% (strength 100) | |
| very bullish | 100 | DOGE/USDT uptrend (gain): price 5.45% (strength 100, current 0.11637) | |
| Tri Pointe Homes Inc | very bearish | 100 | TPH filed 8-K: Material Definitive Agreement, Acquisition or Disposition, Delisting Notice - 7 material events - [very strong very bearish signal] |
| very bullish | 95 | TRUMP/USDT RSI oversold at 4.8 (<30), strength 95 | |
| Pershing Square USA, Ltd | very bullish | 85 | Cluster buying detected: 7 insider trades for PSUS worth $1.7500000010000048e+47M total - 96000000 shares - [very strong very bullish signal] |
| ORANGE SA | bullish | 76 | Bloomberg reports positive developments for 0A6882 — in Events / Natural Disasters / Solar Flares — "Orange to Double Africa Solar-Powered Towers as War Boosts Costs" — [strong signal from highly credible source] |
| neutral | 100 | IOTX/USDT sustained volume dry-up: 1% of expected volume for Thursday 23:00 UTC, price flat 0.00% (strength 100) | |
| very bearish | 100 | LQTY/USDT downtrend (drop): price -8.85% (strength 100, current 0.309) | |
| Apellis Pharmaceuticals Inc | very bearish | 100 | APLS filed 8-K: Modification to Rights of Security Holders, Change in Control, Director or Officer Changes - 9 material events - [very strong very bearish signal] |
| very bearish | 94 | DEXE/USDT RSI overbought at 94.1 (>70), strength 94 | |
| Pershing Square USA, Ltd | bullish | 80 | Cluster buying detected: 3 insider trades for PSUS worth $17500000010000050.00M total - 100000 shares - [very strong bullish signal] |
| Roundhill Sports Betting & iGaming ETF | bullish | 72 | CoinDesk reports positive developments for BETZ — in Sections / Business and Economics / Financial Markets / ETF Market — "Beyond IBIT: A sports betting ETF bitcoin traders may want to watch" — [strong signal from credible source] |
| neutral | 100 | QTUM/TRY sustained volume dry-up: 0% of expected volume for Thursday 23:00 UTC, price flat 0.00% (strength 100) | |
| very bearish | 100 | ONDO/USDC downtrend (drop): price -8.20% (strength 100, current 0.3943) |
Insider filings
Insider filings show large-scale sales by Magnetar Financial LLC and Pershing Square Management, LLC, while purchases were noted for companies like RIVN and JEF.
| Ticker | Insider | Type | Value | Filed |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| XOS | Aljomaih Automotive Co. | other | $2250.0B | 2026-02-11 |
| XOS | Aljomaih Automotive Co. | other | $2250.0B | 2025-11-11 |
| CRWV | Magnetar Financial LLC | sale | $619.6B | 2026-04-15 |
| CRWV | Magnetar Financial LLC | sale | $613.5B | 2026-04-22 |
| CRWV | Magnetar Financial LLC | sale | $582.6B | 2026-04-29 |
| CRWV | Magnetar Financial LLC | sale | $146.4B | 2026-05-04 |
| CRWV | Magnetar Financial LLC | sale | $38.8B | 2026-05-06 |
| CRWV | Magnetar Financial LLC | sale | $36.4B | 2026-05-01 |
| CRWV | Magnetar Financial LLC | sale | $13.8B | 2026-05-05 |
| PSUS | Pershing Square Management, LLC Director | grant | $4.8B | 2026-04-30 |
| SVRE | VisionWave Holdings, Inc. | purchase | $4.3B | 2026-04-28 |
| RIVN | VOLKSWAGEN AG | purchase | $999.9M | 2026-04-30 |
| ADT | Apollo Management Holdings GP, LLC | other | $739.5M | 2026-05-05 |
| ADT | Apollo Management Holdings GP, LLC | other | $739.5M | 2026-05-05 |
| LCID | PUBLIC INVESTMENT FUND | purchase | $550.0M | 2026-04-28 |
| CRGY | Liberty Mutual Foundation Inc. | sale | $402.0M | 2026-05-07 |
| INGM | PLATINUM EQUITY, LLC | sale | $361.2M | 2026-05-07 |
| JHG | Baldwin Brian M Director | sale | $320.6M | 2026-05-12 |
| JHG | Frank Joshua D. Director | sale | $320.6M | 2026-05-12 |
| JEF | SUMITOMO MITSUI FINANCIAL GROUP, INC. Director | purchase | $310.0M | 2026-05-01 |
8-K items
SEC filings include changes in control, delisting notices, and bankruptcy or receivership reports, indicating significant corporate events.
| Company | Item | Materiality | Filed |
|---|---|---|---|
| BRUN | Item 4.01 BRUN - 4.01 - Changes in Registrant's Certifying Accountant | 1.00 | 2026-05-14 |
| BRUN | Item 5.01 BRUN - 5.01 - Changes in Control of Registrant | 1.00 | 2026-05-14 |
| BRUN | Item 3.01 BRUN - 3.01 - Notice of Delisting or Failure to Satisfy a Continued Listing Rule or Standard; Transfer of Listing | 1.00 | 2026-05-14 |
| CSGS | Item 5.01 CSGS - 5.01 - Changes in Control of Registrant | 1.00 | 2026-05-14 |
| CSGS | Item 3.01 CSGS - 3.01 - Notice of Delisting or Failure to Satisfy a Continued Listing Rule or Standard; Transfer of Listing | 1.00 | 2026-05-14 |
| SOPA | Item 1.03 SOPA - 1.03 - Bankruptcy or Receivership | 1.00 | 2026-05-14 |
| HRZN | Item 4.01 HRZN - 4.01 - Changes in Registrant's Certifying Accountant | 1.00 | 2026-05-14 |
| TPH | Item 5.01 TPH - 5.01 - Changes in Control of Registrant | 1.00 | 2026-05-14 |
| TPH | Item 3.01 TPH - 3.01 - Notice of Delisting or Failure to Satisfy a Continued Listing Rule or Standard; Transfer of Listing | 1.00 | 2026-05-14 |
| APLS | Item 3.01 APLS - 3.01 - Notice of Delisting or Failure to Satisfy a Continued Listing Rule or Standard; Transfer of Listing | 1.00 | 2026-05-14 |
| APLS | Item 5.01 APLS - 5.01 - Changes in Control of Registrant | 1.00 | 2026-05-14 |
| IPAR | Item 4.01 IPAR - 4.01 - Changes in Registrant's Certifying Accountant | 1.00 | 2026-05-13 |
| ISPC | Item 3.01 ISPC - 3.01 - Notice of Delisting or Failure to Satisfy a Continued Listing Rule or Standard; Transfer of Listing | 1.00 | 2026-05-13 |
| SNCY | Item 5.01 SNCY - 5.01 - Changes in Control of Registrant | 1.00 | 2026-05-13 |
| SNCY | Item 3.01 SNCY - 3.01 - Notice of Delisting or Failure to Satisfy a Continued Listing Rule or Standard; Transfer of Listing | 1.00 | 2026-05-13 |
| SUI | Item 4.01 SUI - 4.01 - Changes in Registrant's Certifying Accountant | 1.00 | 2026-05-13 |
| BNC | Item 3.01 BNC - 3.01 - Notice of Delisting or Failure to Satisfy a Continued Listing Rule or Standard; Transfer of Listing | 1.00 | 2026-05-13 |
| — | Item 4.01 GROOVY COMPANY, INC. - 4.01 - Changes in Registrant's Certifying Accountant | 1.00 | 2026-05-13 |
| — | Item 4.01 BlueOne Technologies, Inc. - 4.01 - Changes in Registrant's Certifying Accountant | 1.00 | 2026-05-13 |
| RVPH | Item 3.01 RVPH - 3.01 - Notice of Delisting or Failure to Satisfy a Continued Listing Rule or Standard; Transfer of Listing | 1.00 | 2026-05-13 |
SEC filings radar
SEC filings radar highlights tender offers, 13D/G filings for significant stakes, Form 144 proposed sales, and various registration and 13F filings.
| Kind | Ticker | Filing | Detail | Filed |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tender offer | — | Unknown Subject Company | — | 2026-04-01 |
| Tender offer | — | Unknown Subject Company | — | 2026-04-20 |
| Tender offer | — | Unknown Subject Company | — | 2026-04-17 |
| Tender offer | — | Unknown Subject Company | — | 2026-04-14 |
| 13D/G | — | Pershing Square USA, Ltd. - SC_13D Pershing Square USA, Ltd. | 100% stake | 2026-04-30 |
| 13D/G | — | Invesco Advantage Municipal Income Trust II - SC_13D Invesco Advantage Municipal Income Trust II | 100% stake | 2026-04-30 |
| 13D/G | — | Staffing 360 Solutions, Inc. - SC_13D Staffing 360 Solutions, Inc. | 100% stake | 2026-04-27 |
| 13D/G | — | Arcellx, Inc. - SC_13D Arcellx, Inc. | 100% stake | 2026-04-28 |
| Form 144 | — | BARCLAYS BANK PLC - PT CAHAYA RAKA KARSANA BARCLAYS BANK PLC | $2.0B proposed sale | 2026-04-15 |
| Form 144 | — | CARVANA CO. - GARCIA ERNEST C. II CARVANA CO. | $1.6B proposed sale | 2026-05-01 |
| Form 144 | — | DigitalOcean Holdings, Inc. - AI Droplet Holdings LLC DigitalOcean Holdings, Inc. | $522.0M proposed sale | 2026-05-14 |
| Form 144 | — | DigitalOcean Holdings, Inc. - AI Droplet Holdings LLC DigitalOcean Holdings, Inc. | $522.0M proposed sale | 2026-05-14 |
| Registration | — | Unknown Issuer - S-3 Unknown Issuer | — | 2026-04-01 |
| Registration | — | Unknown Issuer - S-3 Unknown Issuer | — | 2026-04-03 |
| Registration | — | Unknown Issuer - S-3 Unknown Issuer | — | 2026-04-09 |
| Registration | — | Unknown Issuer - S-3 Unknown Issuer | — | 2026-04-01 |
| 13F | — | BlackRock, Inc. - 13F BlackRock, Inc. | $5723.5B portfolio, 50651 positions | 2026-03-31 |
| 13F | — | VANGUARD CAPITAL MANAGEMENT LLC - 13F VANGUARD CAPITAL MANAGEMENT LLC | $3995.7B portfolio, 3982 positions | 2026-03-31 |
| 13F | — | VANGUARD PORTFOLIO MANAGEMENT LLC - 13F VANGUARD PORTFOLIO MANAGEMENT LLC | $1886.8B portfolio, 3040 positions | 2026-03-31 |
| 13F | — | JPMORGAN CHASE & CO - 13F JPMORGAN CHASE & CO | $1557.1B portfolio, 33063 positions | 2026-03-31 |
Prediction markets
Prediction markets show low probabilities for most events, with high confidence in a Russia-Ukraine ceasefire and moderate odds for certain football outcomes.
| Question | Yes | Volume | Platform | Snapshot |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? | 0.3% | $363.8M | polymarket | 2026-06-03 23:59 UTC |
| US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026? | 0.2% | $283.8M | polymarket | 2026-05-01 00:35 UTC |
| Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | 0.1% | $158.6M | polymarket | 2026-07-07 21:31 UTC |
| Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | 0.1% | $152.3M | polymarket | 2026-07-10 01:10 UTC |
| Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | 0.1% | $142.5M | polymarket | 2026-07-07 05:09 UTC |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026? | 100% | $138.4M | polymarket | 2026-05-09 19:34 UTC |
| Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | 0.1% | $137.8M | polymarket | 2026-07-06 06:00 UTC |
| Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | 2.2% | $127.6M | polymarket | 2026-07-10 20:01 UTC |
| Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | 6.3% | $125.9M | polymarket | 2026-07-10 20:01 UTC |
| Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | 18.2% | $122.7M | polymarket | 2026-07-10 20:01 UTC |
| Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | 1.8% | $121.7M | polymarket | 2026-07-10 20:01 UTC |
| Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | 0.1% | $119.2M | polymarket | 2026-07-04 03:43 UTC |
| Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | 0.1% | $111.7M | polymarket | 2026-06-30 21:52 UTC |
| Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | 0.1% | $109.5M | polymarket | 2026-07-03 04:04 UTC |
| Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | 39.6% | $109.3M | polymarket | 2026-07-10 20:01 UTC |
| Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | 0.1% | $109.1M | polymarket | 2026-07-07 00:13 UTC |
| Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | 0.1% | $107.5M | polymarket | 2026-06-28 04:49 UTC |
| Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | 0.1% | $107.4M | polymarket | 2026-07-05 02:12 UTC |
| Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | 0.1% | $104.7M | polymarket | 2026-07-08 01:58 UTC |
| Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | 0.1% | $102.9M | polymarket | 2026-07-04 22:14 UTC |
In the news
Asset-linked headlines published in this window, newest first.
- 2026-05-14 universal-display-corp-pauniversal-display-corp
- negative2026-05-14 cotton
- negative2026-05-14 wheat
- negative2026-05-14 corn
- 2026-05-14 founder
- 2026-05-14 trump
- 2026-05-14 regional
- 2026-05-14 regional
- 2026-05-14 hana
- neutral2026-05-14 global
- 2026-05-14 themesaustralian
- negative2026-05-14 cotton
- 2026-05-14 soybeans
- 2026-05-14 five-below-inc
- 2026-05-14 coal
- 2026-05-14 themesaustralianglobal
- 2026-05-14 super-micro-computer-inc
- 2026-05-14 adagio-medical-inc
- 2026-05-14 soundthinking-inc
- 2026-05-14 gold
Generated automatically from live QuantConomy data. Every row is a real platform record;
the summary is model-written from those rows. Not investment advice. New here? Learn what each signal means
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