What is a prediction-market signal?
A prediction-market signal is a scored event derived from real-money prediction markets (such as Polymarket) — a shift in the implied probability, volume, or edge on a market whose outcome bears on an asset or a macro event.
Direction follows the probability move: a rising “Yes” probability on a bullish outcome leans bullish, and vice versa. Strength reflects the size of the probability shift and the market’s volume — a move on a deep, liquid market is more meaningful than one on a thin market.
Crowd-priced probability
Prediction markets let people trade on the outcome of real-world events, so their prices are live, money-backed probability estimates. A market pricing an event at 70% “Yes” is the crowd’s current odds — and a sharp move in that price is a signal that the odds are changing.
Volume and liquidity as weight
Not every prediction market is informative. The platform weights by volume and liquidity, so a probability shift on a heavily-traded market counts for more than the same move on an illiquid one where a single trade can distort the price.
Recent examples
Live prediction-market signals from the platform, newest first. Each links to the company.
| Asset | Direction | Strength | What happened | When |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| — | bearish | 27 | Prediction market "Will Novak Djokovic be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner?" outcome "Yes" moved -6.7% (12% → 6%) over 6h | 2026-07-10 |
| — | bullish | 39 | Prediction market "China x Taiwan military clash before 2027?" outcome "Yes" moved +9.8% (5% → 14%) over 6h | 2026-07-10 |
| — | bullish | 27 | Prediction market "Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?" outcome "Yes" moved +6.8% (32% → 39%) over 6h | 2026-07-10 |
| — | bearish | 26 | Prediction market "Fed rate hike in 2026?" outcome "Yes" moved -6.5% (58% → 52%) over 6h | 2026-07-09 |
| — | bearish | 26 | Prediction market "Fed rate hike in 2026?" outcome "Yes" moved -6.5% (58% → 52%) over 6h | 2026-07-09 |
| — | bearish | 22 | Prediction market "Netanyahu out by end of 2026?" outcome "Yes" moved -5.5% (35% → 30%) over 6h | 2026-07-08 |
See these in context in the daily market digest . Market context, not advice.
Frequently asked
- Are prediction markets accurate?
- Deep, liquid prediction markets have a good track record at aggregating information into probabilities, because participants have real money at stake. Thin markets are noisier, which is why the signal weights by volume and liquidity.
- What is the “Yes probability”?
- The market-implied chance of the event resolving “Yes,” read from the current price of the Yes outcome. A 30% Yes probability means the crowd is pricing roughly a 30% chance the event happens.
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