Prediction market edge.
Where QuantConomy’s modelled probability diverges from a real-money prediction market’s own price. Each row shows the market, the model’s estimate, the market price, and the implied edge. Research signals — market context, not advice.
| Market | Read | Model | Market | Edge | When |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Nate Diaz fight Conor McGregor next? polymarket | yes underpriced | 49% | 6% | +43 pts | 2026-07-10 |
| Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting? polymarket | no underpriced | 55% | 81% | -26 pts | 2026-07-10 |
| Will Lamar Jackson win the 2026 NFL MVP? polymarket | yes underpriced | 59% | 8% | +51 pts | 2026-07-10 |
Frequently asked
- What is prediction-market edge?
- Edge is the gap between QuantConomy’s modelled probability for an event and the price the prediction market itself is trading at. A positive edge on “Yes” means the model thinks the market is underpricing that outcome. It is a research signal, not a bet recommendation.
- Where does the market price come from?
- From real-money prediction markets such as Polymarket, where participants trade on the outcome of real-world events. The market price is the crowd’s live, money-backed probability estimate.
- Is this financial or betting advice?
- No. These are scored research signals with their source markets linked. Prediction markets carry real risk and may be restricted in your jurisdiction; nothing here is a recommendation to trade.